The Operation Warp Speed Dilemma

I loathe Donald Trump, and I’m not loath to say so. I’m guessing most people who are literate enough to properly use “loath” and “loathe” in the same sentence also dislike The Donald.

You might loathe Donald Trump too.

But how much do you loathe him? Do you loathe him enough to root against the health and economic well-being of your entire nation? That’s a lot of loathing.

I’m talking about the Operation Warp Speed dilemma.

If you loathe Trump, you need to contemplate this dilemma.

Now.

At warp speed.

I recognize that contemplation at warp speed is a paradox, but that’s the situation. Sorry.

First, let’s put the cards on the table. Trump is a morally repugnant bigot who derides people from “shithole countries.” He’s an egotistical narcissist who recommends grabbing women by the private parts. He benefited from (and encouraged) Russian meddling in a democratic election. He has an odd infatuation with Vladimir Putin — a guy who is an autocratic enemy of the free press and a friend to corrupt oligarchs. Trump paid off a stripper with campaign money.

Trump’s toxic tweets undermine the mission of our government, Trump’s lies foment discord, and Trump might very well believe he’s above the rule of law. Our president has struggled to condemn white supremacists and Nazis, he has promoted dangerous conspiracy theories, and he’s dismantling the regulations that protect our air, forests, and water. He separated families at the border. He’s insulted our allies and cozied up with neo-authoritarian strongmen. He’s not loyal to anyone (including U.S. intelligence agencies) yet he demands absolute fealty. Trump’s cabinet appointees (and lack thereof) are laughable.

Trump is actively encouraging voter suppression by defunding the U.S. Postal service (at least that’s what my mailman told me).

And, of course, he’s royally screwed his big chance to redeem himself: the pandemic. He could have united the country in a cooperative response to get back on track, financially, socially, and physically. Instead, his response to COVID has been slow, inconsistent, and polarizing.

At the start, he insisted the virus would disappear, just go away. Wishful thinking.

Then he downplayed the advice of the experts, touted an antimalarial drug that had not been tested in a blind trial, and didn’t push for enough testing. He bullied states and schools into reopening, courting disaster.

He recently said of the enormous death toll, “it is what it is.”

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are running against Trump. That’s their platform. Trump is not smart enough or fit enough to lead. Trump is not the man to guide us through these troubled times. This platform should be good enough to win.

Unless . . .

Unless Operation Warp Speed works.

Operation Warp Speed is as Trump as it gets. A wild financial wager on a new and possibly faster new method of making a vaccine — using proteins and small pieces from COVID — instead of the tried and tested way (using an entire inactivated virus). For an excellent and informed summary of Moderna’s progress on their innovative mRNA vaccine, check out this Freakonomics episode: Will a Covid-19 Vaccine Change the History of Medical Research?

Several vacccines are now in Phase 3, clinical trials. This can last for years, especially if the drug is tested against placebos and other treatments in gold-standard randomized double blind experiments. But ain’t nobody got time for that. Companies are manufacturing millions of doses before the drug is fully tested and approved. On the taxpayer’s dime. Trump has been doling out billions of dollars to corporations, and the process hasn’t been particularly transparent.

If you’re still reading this, you’re probably rooting for the Democrats in November. But how hard are you rooting for them? Are you rooting against Operation Warp Speed?

Because here’s the thing. Operation Warp Speed might work. It might work fast. Maybe even before November 3rd (or whenever we finish counting the mail-in ballots . . . my mailman is not optimistic).

Or — the more likely scenario — Operation Warp Speed might end up a corrupt stew of insider trading, untested science, cronyism, corporate giveaways, and obscene conflicts of interest.

The watchdogs have their eyes on you, Dr. Slaoui.

Operation Warp Speed will probably be remembered as another Trumpian blunder: a half-baked plan with a puerile name.

These two outcomes set up a rather dark game of would you rather . . .

Would you rather that Operation Warp Speed fail and we suffer another year (or two) in the grip of this pandemic?

Due to Trump’s utter inability to curb COVID, Biden and Harris get elected.

Or do you prefer door number two . . . would you prefer that Operation Warp Speed succeeds?

Trump gloats, Trump says I told you so, Trump parades and preens. Trump tweets gloriously untrue propaganda. Trump takes full credit.

Trump convinces the anti-vaxxers to get vaccinated. Trump convinces the country to reopen. Completely. The pandemic, the lockdown, the economic crisis, unemployment . . . they all disappear. Just like he said. The stock market soars even higher.

In this version of the future, Trump gets reelected.

When Trump was asked if a working vaccine delivered before November 3rd would help his reelection chances, he said, “it wouldn’t hurt. But I’m doing it not for the election . . . I want it fast because I want to save a lot of lives.”

Anti-Trumpers might dispute this claim, but I think it’s silly to even parse this. Of course, Trump wants a vaccine for both reasons — he wants to get re-elected, but I’m also assuming he’s sincere about saving lives.

He’s not a sociopath, right?

It doesn’t matter. If Operation Warp Speed works, lives will be saved. Trump’s rationale will become irrelevant. More recently, he accused the “deep state” over at the FDA for slowing down approval of therapeutics, including convalescent plasma. The FDA wants to hold treatments to the double blind gold standard. Trump wants to forge ahead, and see a cure before the election.

So you have to decide: which scenario you are rooting for?

Philosopher Jeremy Bentham called this weird utilitarian math the “hedonistic calculus.”

How much pain would four more years of Trump cause our nation? Would the damage his administration inflicts on the environment and international affairs be more detrimental than the lengthening of the COVID crisis? How much havoc could his appointees wreak? How much more polarization can our citizenry withstand?

These questions are hard to answer.

This one is easier: how much pleasure would the end of COVID bring our nation?

If Operation Warp Speed works, there will be jobs and gyms and weddings and school. Regular school. People will go on cruises. People will go to bars and movies and mega-churches.

But there will be four more years of Trump.

For some, all the anxiety will fade away. For others, it will increase. Tweet by ludicrous tweet.

I can’t look into your soul. I don’t know how hard it would be for you to stomach another four years of Trump in the White House. I don’t know how much you loathe him. I also don’t know what other crises Trump might botch, or how much irreversible damage one man can perpetrate.

Only you can decide where you stand. Only you can do this math. The calculations aren’t pretty. But you might want to start adding up the figures now, so you’re prepared. Whether you like it or not, November is coming.

At warp speed.