For some time now, people in America have been moving out of the largest cities to small towns, suburbs, and exurbs. The COVID pandemic has accelerated this trend. The virus puts a serious tax on density.
While this exodus might be good for my property values-- I live in a small town on the train line to NYC-- from a larger perspective, it's kind of scary.
First of all, large cities are some of the greenest places on earth. Especially New York City.
If people move out of our big cities and spread out into the suburbs, traffic and air pollution are going to get worse. More open space will be converted to suburban neighborhoods. Wildlife corridors and wetlands will be disrupted.
How will this contribute to global warming, air quality, and energy consumption?
If people move out of cities and spread thinly across our country, what will happen to those urban spaces? We've all learned to shop online (I just bought some athletic shorts from Amazon . . . I know my size and inseam preference and everything) so there's going to be some sort of massive restructuring of retail space.
We have so many stores in America, especially in our cities. Ten times more retail space per capita than Germany.
What will happen to these stores? And the strip malls? What will happen to the strip malls?
One of my friends used to commute to NYC, but now he's working from home. And he's going to be working from home forever. His company is seriously considering getting rid of all the expensive office space in the city.
One of my friends used to commute to NYC, but now he's working from home. And he's going to be working from home forever. His company is seriously considering getting rid of all the expensive office space in the city.
Why keep it?
What if this happens on a massive scale?
Now this migration may allow middle-class people who always wanted to live in major cities but could never afford it the opportunity to do so. People who enjoy diversity and density and city parks and the thrum of creativity and humanity outside their doorstep 24/7.
But with the pandemic looming, will they move?
I don't have any answers, but I'm sure something is going to happen. Right?
4 comments:
Dave, you will move into the city once your kids go to college. Or get out of college. This is your future.
i don't know about that . . . i could see myself in the mountains of Vermont. unless there's a vaccine, that would change things.
my wife and i are in the midst of a debate about whether we should sell our house and move to the/a city when our kids have moved out. i'm pro-city, because i regret not living in one earlier and i am very keen on the idea of not having to maintain any sort of property. my wife is pro-status quo because she wants a place for our kids and eventual grandkids to come to. i will lose this debate, but i'll go down fighting and perhaps wind up with a lake house as a compromise.
we've discussed this as well-- it's a nice debate to have, to be in the position to have these kind of choices (although my wife hates to swim in a lake, she thinks the bottom is yucky). property sucks but my wife seems to love maintaining it . . . a vaccine for covid makes cheap real estate in a major city really attractive.
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